Carrol's Latest On Joba

Will Carrol's been working the phones since Joba Chamberlain went down with shoulder tendinitis in Texas and posted his latest analysis today at Baseball Prospectus. By all accounts, it seems as though Chamberlain is well on his way back - regardless of what Abraham's pessimism says over at Lohud.

The idea will be to work Joba back into the rotation the same way which was implemented the first go-round - in other words use him in relief until his arm strength allows him to start again. This is an especially smart move because the minor league season will soon be over and therefore take away the chance for him to rehab down there.

Carrol's thoughts:

Things looked good for Chamberlain when he got back up on the mound in the latest in a series of throwing sessions. The news has been more about shifting him back to the pen than it has about the success of his steady but slow return. There are a couple of factors that appear to be pushing him to relief work, none of them having anything to do with the injury. First is the impending end of the minor league season, making it tougher to send him down for a rehab start, and secondly the Yankees have chosen a more advanced approach to pitching management, something that has allowed them to transition Chamberlain from the pen to the rotation in the first place. Think of this as the same sort of transition, allowing him to build up stamina at the major league level while controlling his innings. The media and less-informed fans might panic, but in the end the Yankees have one starter who should be established enough for them to build around for 2009 and beyond.

As much as I enjoy a rotation built around Carl Pavano and Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner, for some reason Chamberlain and Phil Hughes would be a bit more exciting come September.

*** Humberto Sanchez has been promoted to Tampa and pitched one scoreless inning Monday night.

*** Ian Kennedy struck out another nine batters over six innings, allowing two runs on four hits. Over his last two starts IPK has punched out 18 batters over just 11 innings while walking just three. As you've read here [probably too many times], Kennedy needs to refine his curveball if he's going to be successful in the bigs. And that's what he's been doing during his latest foray into the minor leagues. Hence the big strikeout totals.

Gerrit Cole UCLA Bound?

UPDATE MONDAY 11:34 AM :

There seems to be a lot of [understandable] confusion regarding Gerrit Cole's decision to attend college and consequently turn down a multi-million dollar deal with the New York Yankees. I'm pretty confused myself. But, I have been hearing a lot of people discuss the topic with the misconception that the failed signing has, in any way, to do with the efforts of Brian Cashman.

I just sent an email explaining this to my brother and this is what I said:

This falls solely on Cole [and/or his dad]..

As you probably know, the baseball draft is an entirely different animal than the NBA or NFL drafts. In baseball, kids can get drafted out of HS [like Cole], but they can choose to go to college instead [like Cole]. However, the top prep players make sure their advisors inform clubs what the player plans to do in regards to the draft.

For example, Alex Meyer is a beast RHP coming out of High School - he made it abundently clear that he would be attending Kentucky U. next year so teams shouldn't bother picking him in the draft. The Red Sox picked him in the 20th round hoping a bunch of money might change his mind. It didn't and Meyer turned down $2million to go to college.

Cole, on the other hand, informed everyone that he DID want to pursue a careeer in professional baseball [the minors] and did not plan on attending UCLA - unless of course his financial desires weren't met. Knowing this, the Yankees jumped at the chance to draft Cole, and knew they had the financial might to sign him regardlesss of what outlandish demands Scott Boras made.

Out of nowhere Cole said he wanted to go to school and that no amount of money could sway that fact. Essentially, Cole turned down money which only top-5 picks got [and a chance to pitch for his favorite team] in order to got to school [and a just OK UCLA program].

For me and everyone else who followed the negotiations, this is completely inexplicable. There is no sound reasoning behind this decision except for maybe Cole's desire to be the big man on campus and pick up college chicks. Even so, having $5 or $6 million in the bank would probably get him more than a baseball scholarship. Hope he knows what he's doing, because an arm injury is just one greedy UCLA coach away - considering the overuse top college pitchers often face.

***

And the hits just keep on coming, huh?

According to an anonymous source cited by the always reliable Tyler Kepner, 1st round draft pick Gerrit Cole will not sign with the Yankees and instead plans on attending UCLA.

Kepner says that money was not an issue as Cole decided to go to school regardless of what money the Yankees offered.

This, regardless of what Yankees brass say, is a gutpunch considering an 18 year-old with a high-90s fastball and potential plus breaking ball is a rare commodity. It hurts even more considering the underwhelming status of the Yankees 2008 draft - which becomes especially evident without Cole in the fold.

Aside from Brett Marshall, and the probable signing of LHP Anthony Bleich, the Yankees played it safe this draft. Cole was the one piece of the puzzle which had to be had. Unfortunately, Scott Boras probably pushed for the same type of major league deal given to Andrew Brackman, and when he didn't get it, decided to take Cole's electric right arm to college and hope to get a Porcello type deal.

Looks like Mr. Cole wasn't nearly as big a Yankees fan as he led on. Either that or Boras pulled another one of his hypnotist tricks on Gerrit and Papa Cole.

The End Of An Era

Apparently all that chatter about one of Mike Francesa or Chris Russo leaving the top sports radio network in the country [WFAN] and top sports talk program [Mike & The Mad Dog] is more than innuendo or contract posturing.

According to multiple reports, Chris Russo is leaving WFAN and most probably on his way to Sirius Satellite radio.

WFAN announced early Thursday evening that Chris Russo is leaving the company, making Mike Francesa the sole host of the popular afternoon drive time show.

The announcement of Russo's departure coincided with the announcement of a new contract for Francesa, whose deal was believed to be expiring around the end of the year.

Love 'em or hate 'em, this marks the end of an era in sports broadcasting as these sometimes frustrating, sometimes dead-on, but always entertaining twosome created what sports talk radio is today.

Annnnnnnnnnnnnd, goodbye everybody! Ouch.

"Hey Zeus, As In Father Of Apollo"

The kid is raking. He is absolutely raking.

The kid being 18 year old catcher Jesus Montero of course.

While the Yankees stink up the Bronx with their putrid road trip, the future is bright down on the farm. Keep in mind that Mr. Montero, the 6-foot-5, 230 pounder, has one of the biggest pitcher's ballpark in the minors to call home. [According to statistics, Charleston has been the 4th toughest place to hit homers over the past three years]

As of 7:45pm Wednesday, Montero is batting .325/.373/.481 with 14 homers, 31 Doubles, 72 RBI in 445 at bats. Imagine if he played at a launchpad like Lancaster for half the year.

To put it in perspective, Montero's numbers rank as follows in the Sally League:

Hits - first
Avg. - second
Doubles - fourth
Total Bases - fifth
RBI - seventh
Slugging - eighth
OPS - eighth
Runs - eleventh
OBP - twelfth

It will be fun to see Montero do damage to the Florida State League pitching next year as has solidified as a blue chip prospect in 2008.

***
In old news, Wilkins De La Rosa earned a promotion to Tampa and, not surprisingly, pitched well when facing the new challenge by throwing 5.1 innings, allowing one earned run on three hits while striking out four. On the season De La Rosa has now punched out 114 batters over 95.2 innings and allowed just 63 hits. That works out to a .188 opponents batting average.

Joba Expects To Pitch This Month

I hope the Yankees are being as cautious as I expect them to be, but if Joba Chamberlain is indeed correct, it's great news that "The Hutt" could rejoin the Yankees rotation by late August - at which time he, alongside Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy could be celebrating a Generation Trey reunion.

Isn't it ironic how the Yankees will, in all likelihood, begin and end the season relying heavily on Hughes and IPK as rotation stalwarts.

Ed Price of the Star Ledger is reporting Chamberlain will likely miss a month, though he cites Yankees anonymous sources who call the injury "minor" and even says the injury was actually to his "biceps tendon" and not the rotator cuff.

From the ESPN article:

Joba Chamberlain plans to start a throwing program next week and expects to rejoin the New York Yankees' rotation this month.

"I'll be throwing in a week. I'll probably throw the beginning of next week," Chamberlain said Friday when he arrived at the Yankees' spring training complex. "Everything feels fine now."

[Chamberlain] never thought the problem was serious.

"No. Not at all," Chamberlain said. "It would have been different if I wasn't still throwing 99 [mph]. It was a different feeling that I never had, so I just wanted to make sure."

When asked if he would be ready to start again for the Yankees by Sept. 1, Chamberlain said "I'll throw way before that in a game."

Alrighty then. Yankees docs, let's try and do your due diligence on this one. I don't want the same brilliant minds who allowed the Mets' Ryan Church to play through concussion symptoms going near Mr. Chamberlain. I'd rather the Yankees play it safe with Chamberlain and thereby risk the 2008 playoffs, then take any chance on Chamberlain's shoulder and thereby risk the next decade.

If Joba is really suffering from the common malady of "shoulder tendinitis," then it does not make a difference if he rests for the next week or the next three months. As long as the inflammation subsides and his shoulder is properly restrengthened, there isn't any reason Joba can't return from this injury rather quickly.

Again, that is if the Yankees brass is offering the public an honest diagnosis and isn't playing the cloak and dagger games they have in the past.

Brett The Jet's Best Clips

For Jet fans like myself, forget ESPN's fawning over Brett Favre [while John Clayton puts some odd negative spin on it] and all the ridiculous pageantry Mayer Bloomberg offered today.

This is what Brett's all about.. some great stuff:



Prediction: AFC Wildcard berth with 10-11 wins. Your heard the hex here first.

Hughes Coming On Quick,Adds New Pitch

Though his command could use a little greater consistency, Phil Hughes again pitched well in his first AAA start of 2008, tossing 68 pitches [40 for strikes] through 4.2 innings and allowing one earned run on three hits. Hughes is slated for 85 pitches during his next start Tuesday in Pawtucket.

More importantly, Phil's stuff appears to be back in the electric category as it is again being reported that he was hitting the mid-90s consistently with his fastball. Also, according to Chad Jennings, Hughes has added a cut-fastball to his arsenal which was around 87-89 mph [that's replaced a mediocre slider] and tossed a handful of changeups.

Here's what my boy Dan Graziano reported as he was on assignment in Scranton tonight:

A scout who's here tonight said the scoreboard radar gun at this park can fluctuate unreliably. According to this guy's gun, Hughes' fastball was in the 94-95 mph range in the first three innings and then in the 91-93 range thereafter. The scout also said Hughes' curveball looked good, and that his slider sometimes looked a little more like a cutter, which he speculated was probably unintentional and a result of rust.

If you haven't already read the Baseball Prospectus report from Phil's last rehab start in Charleston, it's pretty obvious that BP and the scouts in attendance that night were thoroughly impressed with where Hughes' stuff was at:

Philip Hughes, RHP, Low-A Charleston (Yankees)
Technically, he's not really a prospect any more, but he's still a young unproven player. Based on what Hughes showed on Saturday, though, he could be a factor in the post-season race. Once the top pitching prospect in the game, Hughes made his second rehab appearance since coming back from a rib injury, absolutely dominating Sally League hitters on Saturday, allowing one hit in 3 2/3 shutout innings while striking out five. More important was how good Hughes' stuff was, as his fastball sat in the low 90s and consistently touched 94-95—the kind of velocity he showed frequently in the minors, but rarely with the Yanks. While neither he nor Ian Kennedy have played the expected roles at the big-league level this year, they both might come September.

Mr. Hughes looks like he's back in the building which begs the question: has Hughes reverted back to the mechanics he used in 2006? I sure hope it is the case as I've already heard rumors Phil is back to the more athletic 3/4 armslot he began with as opposed to the more over-the-top delivery he'd been using of late. If you want to read a longwinded discussion of Phil's mechanics and velocity issues, feel free to check out this post from last year.

Carrol's Initial Diagnosis On Joba Looks Positive

Will Carrol, the injury savant, offers his take on the Joba Chamberlain injury:

The early word is that his muscle tightened up due to a combination of the blistering heat (I sat in that heat the night before, and yeah, it's a huge factor) and fatigue. It's the latter that's most worrisome given Chamberlain's switch of roles. While he built up his arm strength, no one has any idea how the fatigue will be affected by the shape of his season. He's headed back to New York for tests, so we'll know more soon, but early reports and sources tell me that things look relatively positive, based both on the pain's location, and on his reaction. Expect the Yanks to be ultra-conservative, and for Chamberlain to miss a start at least.

Hat tip to the man, Alex of BronxBanter.

Hughes Headed To AAA

According to Tyler Kepner, the Phil Hughes rehab train will be taking the express line as the RHP is on his way to AAA-Scranton after pitching twice for Low-A Charleston. Kepner goes on to predict Hughes will only need two starts at AAA before making his major league return during the next Yankees homestand [August 17th]:

Prediction: Ian Kennedy takes over for Darrell Rasner the next time through the rotation, and Phil Hughes comes back on the next homestand. Phil made his way to Scranton last night, and he will slot into the Class AAA rotation this week. (He drove up with Shelley Duncan, who’s back in Scranton after a quick rehab for his separated shoulder in Tampa.) I can’t imagine Phil would need more than two starts until he’s ready. That could mean the end of the Sidney Ponson Era, part 2, although Ponson has done a good job.

While Kennedy earned his way back into consideration for a spot within the big league rotation, Hughes is obviously being pushed into the majors because of need, and not results. This was the same problem many had with his MLB debut last year, because the argument was that he hadn't refined his third and fourth pitches [change/slider] enough to warrant a roster spot.

Though I believe Hughes has the fastball velocity and command to succeed at the highest level, it is his ability to command the changeup which will determine how valuable he is during the '08 stretch run. In the same vain, the key to Kennedy's success remains his ability, or lack thereof, regarding the quality of his breaking stuff. No command of his curveball and the occasional slider means hitters will simply take his good changeup and sit dead red on fastballs.

It's interesting to see that Kepner is so confident Hughes and Kennedy will soon replace the dwindling twosome of Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner.

UPDATE from SWB Blog:
Chad Jennings had some great quotes from the pitching guru himself, Nardi Conteras, regarding Hughes:

Pitching coordinator Nardi Contreras is here with Hughes and watched both of his rehabs in Charleston. Contreras said Hughes looked about as good in his last start as he ever has with the Yankees. His fastball command and velocity were both very good -- 93 to 95 mph, not 101 like the stadium gun showed -- and Contreras said the curveball was as sharp as it's been since 2006 when Hughes was so good for Trenton.

Considering how well Nardi knows Phil's development and ability, [as well as his tendency to downplay pitchers] this is some exciting stuff. Looks as if the real deal Philip might actually show up in '08.

Hughes Hits Triple Digits?I Think Not, But...

Phil Hughes captured the imagination of Yankees fans everywhere when, during his most recent rehab outing for Charleston, the 22 year-old starting pitcher alledgedly hit 101 mph with his fastball.

Although it was reported Hughes touched triple digits while in high school, his typical velocity will range from 91-94mph and touch the mid-90s when he dials it up.

Though the Charleston announcer reported that the stadium radar gun had been checked in between innings and was supposedly accurate, it doesn't take a whole lot of thinking before realizing the gun was juiced.

I felt like the gun was, in all probability, running approximately 4 mph too high which still means Philerup is touching 97 mph. Knocking off the same 4 mph would have had Carl Pavano [who started the game] throwing 88-89 mph, which makes sense considering this is just his second start back coming off of TJ surgery.

Some in the area have told me that the radar gun was probably about 5 mph higher than reality, meaning Hughes was essentially throwing 92-95 mph and topping out at 96 mph. Which was supported by Brian Cashman, who, while appearing on TBS during today's game, said Hughes was hitting 95 mph during last night's outing.

Let the Phil Hughes velocity obsession saga continue. Just don't think that he'll hit 100mph any time soon, unless the RHP bought a Porsche 911 and feels like dragging on the NJ Tpke.

***
After going to Friday's game and leaving with a heartwrenching 1-0 loss at the hands of Mariano Rivera [and his inability to pitch in a tie game this year], today was an enormous game and split for the Yankees.

By the way, here are Rivera's 2008 stats:

Non-save situations: 3.00 ERA, 21 IP, 18 hits, 7 ER, 25 K's, 3 HR
Vs.. Save situations: 0.33 ERA, 27.1 IP, 12 hits, 1 ER, 33 K's, 0 HR

In A Word, Pathetic.

C'mon now Diamond Notes. Even for a red pom-pom waver like Gammons, it's pretty comical to see such a corrosive report condemning Manny Ramirez considering how he [and the rest of ESPN] reveled in how the Manny Being Manny circus had served as a calming effect for Boston just last postseason.

At that time, the Sox were trailing Cleveland three games to one in the ALCS, when Ramirez was quoted as saying losing the series would "not [be] the end of the world." However, when Boston admirably ran off three straight wins on their way toward a second championship in four years, Manny's initially moronic comments had somehow metamorphized into an inspirational slogan.

See, when Manny's antics add up to a World Series trophy, he's the lovable dope who doesn't know any better. But, when the organization finally decides to banish the formerly lovable dope, now his actions become the indefensible behavior of a selfish clubhouse cancer. Where were you the last five years?

And as far as the threat of Ramirez possibly taking the rest of the Summer off had he not been dealt, why not take a look back at the conclusion of the 2006 season when a mysterious knee ailment [sound familiar?] allowed Ramirez to quit on his teammates. Apparently it's OK to bail on the team when they're bound for a third place finish in the AL East - as they were in '06 - but when Boston is in contention for a playoff spot - as they are in '08 - that's when Manny Being Manny becomes Manny being a malcontent.

The coup-de-grace for me was the steroid line of Gammons' column. Placing Manny's immaturity off the diamond on par with the most egregious cheaters of the game is about as palatable an idea as Wilson Betemit playing first base. Obviously, this Gammons piece has John Henry's fingerprints all over it. The Red Sox front office was happy to put a bullseye on Manny's back as he walked out Fenway's door, and, not surprisingly, Gammons was just as content to pick up the ammo from Theo Epstein before firing the killshot.

For all the times I've ripped Ramirez for his shenanigans as a Red Sox, I can at least point to my consistency. Though I always felt Manny's tendency to quit on his teammates or dog it on the basepaths would eventually take its toll on the rest of the team, I never questioned his unbelievable talent in the batter's box and I never dropped his name into the same category as steroid users like Bonds, McGwire or Giambi. One thing's for sure; July 31st, 2008 has become a holiday for Yankees fans and Yankees pitchers alike which is why It will also be interesting to see what impact not having Ramirez hitting behind him will have on David Ortiz.

***

Since we're on the topic of phonies, here's another unsurprising, unflattering, critique of Manny's Red Sox tenure. This one offered up by, who else, Curt Schilling during his weekly radio [via the Rob Neyer Blog]:

"At the end of the day you're taking the field with a guy who doesn't want to play with you, doesn't want to be there, doesn't want to … obviously effort-wise is just not there and that's disheartening and disappointing," Schilling said during his weekly appearance on Boston sports radio WEEI's Dennis and Callahan program."

"I enjoyed pitching with Pedro, but I watched Pedro for a year come and go as he pleased, and do whatever he pleased, from a schedule standpoint and to a point, All-Star break heading home and no one ever said a word …The things that Pedro said going out of town about Terry [Francona], that crushed me because of what I saw Tito do for him. Manny's the same way …"

Even when he's not with the team, Schilling finds a way to throw his hat into the ring. And why exactly would Red Sox fans want to hear from a guy who hasn't thrown a pitch all season and likely never will again?